<Ukraine battlefield map, March 12 >
The war in Ukraine: how will it unfold? After launching missile strikes on Ukraine’s major cities on February 24, Russia began attacking Kherson from Crimea; Luhansk and Donetsk in the Donbas conflict zone in the east; Mariupol, the corridor city meant to link Crimea, seized in 2014, with the pro-Russian Donbas; and Kharkiv and Chernihiv in the north. Russia aimed to finish the operation within a week, but as of March 2, even in the south, where the invasion has gone relatively to plan, it had not captured Mariupol, the key corridor city linking Russia proper and Crimea. In the north, it has encircled major cities but has not decisively subdued Ukrainian government forces and civilian militias armed with Western anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons. Since March 4, it has been building up attack forces and equipment to encircle and take Kyiv again, but there has been no major progress so far.
Why did the Russian army, or rather Putin, advance on Kyiv in battalion-sized units without thorough preparation? Perhaps he assumed Ukrainians would welcome them and that militias would help, easing supply problems. Did you notice the old Soviet flags hanging on the tanks and armored vehicles invading Ukraine? Most Russians did not live as well as people in the West, but they miss the economic stability the state guaranteed and the days when they were the world’s strongest power, one even America feared.
Ukraine shares a history and a similar language with Russia and produced many prominent Soviet politicians, such as Trotsky, Brezhnev and Khrushchev. It also suffered the Holodomor, a man-made famine in which millions starved, comparable to the Irish Great Famine of the mid-19th century, when a million people starved and another million emigrated. In 2013, mass protests against the government’s pro-Russian course led to a pro-Western government. As a result, ethnic Russians in Crimea and the east demanded secession, Russia seized Crimea, and a Russian-backed civil war has dragged on in the Donbas for more than eight years. In this situation, Putin probably wanted to seize Ukraine, which sought to join NATO, with lightning speed and make an example of it for Russia’s neighbors.
< Saint Javelin >
Let me offer my personal forecast of what comes next. You have seen plenty of footage of Russian T-90 tanks having their turrets blown off by U.S.-made Javelin anti-tank missiles, and Mi-24 attack helicopters falling one after another to Stinger missiles, haven’t you? We cheer day after day for the Ukrainian soldiers and citizens as if it were our own fight, but won’t Russia end up taking Kyiv anyway? Russian forces, suffering heavy losses in urban combat, will resort to air strikes, preliminary thermobaric barrages and chemical and biological weapons, just as in the Second Chechen War that broke out right after Putin first took power 20 years ago. Footage and photos of women and children horribly killed and buried in mass graves will flood media and social networks around the world.
< A scene from the film 'Braveheart' >
If President Zelensky, who fought to the bitter end, were brutally assassinated by Russian special forces and his body desecrated, he would live on forever in Ukrainian history as a legend, like William Wallace, the hero of Scottish independence, wouldn’t he? Just as ancient bards passed legends down to their descendants in song, his story would be handed down in books, films and dramas. Representative stories already exist: the Ukrainian marine who blew himself up on a bridge to stop Russian forces advancing on the southern Kherson region, the defenders of Snake Island who cursed and refused to surrender, and the citizens who blocked Russian tanks with Molotov cocktails and their own bodies. Whatever bond remained between Ukraine and Russia would quickly ignite into nationwide hostility, like that between Korea and Japan or Ireland and Britain.
< Ukrainian Parliament >
Then, Russia would set up a pro-Russian puppet government made up of Ukrainian politicians who collaborated with it even during the war, and Russian troops would be stationed in Ukraine as they were after the invasion of Afghanistan, wouldn’t they? Through constitutional revision, Ukraine would be made to give up NATO membership and become neutral, while agreeing to recognize the Donbas as an independent state and cede Crimea completely to Russia. It would look much like the Eulsa Treaty that Joseon signed with Japan in 1905. In the process, Ukraine would produce its own “Yi Wan-yongs,” wouldn’t it? Ukraine would become a second Afghanistan. A Ukrainian government-in-exile would be set up in Poland, NATO troops would surround Ukraine and Russia, and wouldn’t the United States, smiling quietly, ignite the war with bombers, nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers? If that happens, it could escalate into World War III, couldn’t it? It frightens me.
The longer this war drags on, the more the anger of Ukrainians and citizens around the world will burn. Through this process, Russia and Ukraine will be psychologically separated beyond repair. Once the ambiguity of having relatives, lovers, studies, jobs and a shared history in Russia is gone, a distinct Ukrainian identity will take hold, the one from the “Taras Bulba” we saw as children, the land of brave and ruthless Cossack cavalry. As you know, the Soviet Union suddenly dissolved after the Afghan war and the Chernobyl nuclear accident. Russia will collapse because of its invasion of Ukraine. Searches for “North Korea” inside Russia have risen nearly tenfold. Will they be able to endure the “Arduous March” that lies ahead? We shall see…
To be continued